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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."